The Oil Age

Frank Wicks gives a nice history of the “Oil Age” in this month’s issue of Mechanical Engineering magazine. His article traces the rise of petroleum in modern society, and discusses challenges we face today. He describes early medicinal uses of petroleum by Seneca Indians, the first commercial drilling, and the transition to ubiquitous petroleum use. In the early stages of the oil age, kerosene for lighting was a dominant petroleum product, and natural gas and gasoline were wasted byproducts. In 1879, “Thomas Edison predicted the end of oil when he invented the light bulb”,  but this was of course on the heels of internal combustion engines and the phenomenal expansion of petroleum consumption that helps fuel our modern economy.

Wicks discusses how oil supplies are bounded: “Although oil has been found … at many locations, it should always be recognized to be a finite resource because we can burn it far faster than nature can replace it.” In fact, this issue was recognized very early on. Wicks explains that “Henry Ford feared that gasoline from oil would not last long enough to sustain a rapidly growing auto industry, and started research for alternatives.” While there has been enough gasoline to fuel a booming auto industry for more than a century, it will not last forever. Some predict that we are near peak oil, evidenced by the current production rates and the declining rate of discovery. Estimates of how much longer petroleum supplies will last vary widely. Wicks cites one estimate that postulates that:

…the world started the Oil Age with about two trillion barrels of recoverable oil. About half of that has been extracted. The remaining trillion barrels represent about a 30-year supply at the current rate of consumption and will be much more difficult to recover. The fundamental problem is that oil is too good. It is required for most things that we do. The alternatives are mostly inferior or less acceptable. Adapting to the next half and the end of the Oil Age may be the greatest challenge our civilization has ever had to face.

Regardless of how much is actually left, the amount is finite and irreplaceable. It will be increasingly difficult (and damaging) to recover, meaning that we will not be able to keep up current rates of consumption. In addition, we rely on petroleum for far more than fuel. It is feedstock for countless products (think of how many things are made using petroleum-derived plastics and chemicals). It may not happen tomorrow, or perhaps not even in some of our lifetimes, but at some point petroleum will become scarce and very expensive. How are we going to transition to alternatives? Clearly, the earlier we start, the easier the transition will be. And if we curtail petroleum use for fuel sooner than later, then perhaps we can prolong the transition to alternatives for petroleum-derived plastics and chemicals.

Wicks’ article focused on the issue of petroleum finiteness, which is only one factor compelling us to curb consumption. When we combine finiteness with national security, climate change, and other relevant issues, it’s clear we need to take action and make rapid progress. We’ve grown accustomed to the ease of oil, and change to something different can intimidating, but these changes can also be exciting opportunities to create a cleaner, more sustainable world to live in. These changes could even be liberating, leading to better quality of life for more people.

One interesting aspect of this article is its audience: engineers. It’s essential that this audience recognizes the importance of moving (quickly) toward a sustainable way of living. Engineers are the folks who can develop the  alternatives we need. But creating alternatives won’t automatically make society sustainable; alternatives need to be implemented and used widely. The rest of us need to support efforts to create complete solutions that combine technical advances with the right public policy, the right incentives, and enough popular support to help wean us off petroleum (and other unsustainable practices). Supporting these efforts is an important way to amplify our individual impact.